* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/30/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 46 42 35 29 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 46 42 35 29 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 48 44 36 29 24 20 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 8 10 5 13 14 17 19 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 18 355 344 350 283 274 255 238 220 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.8 24.1 23.6 23.0 22.1 21.7 21.5 21.2 21.0 20.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 112 105 100 93 83 78 75 71 69 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 58 56 54 50 46 42 39 33 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 24 9 -11 -25 -39 -20 -16 -12 -12 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 6 1 0 4 23 -2 -3 9 -13 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -6 1 2 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1506 1465 1433 1412 1405 1390 1343 1340 1339 1349 1331 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.5 22.7 24.7 26.3 27.3 28.0 28.6 29.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.0 126.5 127.2 127.8 129.1 130.5 131.5 132.1 132.7 133.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 11 8 6 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -26. -30. -35. -40. -46. -48. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 125.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 361.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 13.6% 12.5% 9.8% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 4.9% 4.3% 3.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##