* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/30/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 41 34 31 25 25 23 21 20 17 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 41 34 31 25 25 23 21 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 40 37 32 26 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 10 7 10 6 8 7 9 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 1 0 4 -1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 70 52 41 25 347 323 269 243 252 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.6 25.9 25.1 24.4 23.1 22.1 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 123 115 108 95 84 79 76 75 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 63 62 58 54 49 45 38 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 13 14 12 11 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 75 55 37 23 -19 0 1 6 7 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 27 18 15 10 -7 11 0 10 10 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 -1 3 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1603 1554 1497 1446 1405 1362 1357 1351 1430 1496 1524 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.9 19.9 22.3 24.8 26.2 26.9 27.3 27.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 124.7 124.8 125.3 125.8 127.1 128.7 130.5 132.3 133.5 134.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 12 14 12 10 7 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -4. -7. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -11. -14. -20. -20. -22. -24. -25. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 124.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 1.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 220.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 11.0% 8.2% 5.6% 5.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.8% 2.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##