* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 42 38 32 26 25 24 22 20 18 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 42 38 32 26 25 24 22 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 46 44 38 32 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 11 11 7 9 5 4 4 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 54 69 58 51 9 346 292 251 241 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.3 23.8 23.0 22.1 21.7 21.6 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 131 125 117 102 93 83 78 76 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 65 62 58 55 51 45 38 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 73 53 38 11 -15 -1 7 16 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 22 17 6 6 -5 -12 -6 0 5 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -1 -3 -1 -7 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1654 1610 1568 1518 1452 1394 1414 1411 1392 1447 1551 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.6 18.6 20.9 22.9 24.8 26.4 27.2 27.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.8 125.1 126.5 128.0 129.6 131.3 132.8 134.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 9 11 12 13 12 11 9 7 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -25. -26. -28. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.3 124.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 235.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.7% 7.9% 5.8% 4.6% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##