* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 42 38 32 26 24 24 23 20 17 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 42 38 32 26 24 24 23 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 46 43 38 32 26 21 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 12 11 10 9 4 4 4 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 5 1 -1 -2 0 -1 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 51 65 78 71 39 14 19 302 245 223 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.8 24.2 23.0 22.2 21.9 21.7 21.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 127 122 106 93 84 80 78 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 64 60 54 53 46 39 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 16 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 72 77 78 67 38 -6 11 18 23 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 10 26 22 8 -1 -15 -10 -10 13 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4 2 0 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1708 1672 1637 1597 1539 1424 1405 1420 1396 1452 1561 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.1 17.0 17.8 20.2 22.7 24.5 25.9 26.8 27.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.0 125.0 125.2 125.4 126.3 127.8 129.3 130.8 132.5 134.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 9 11 14 13 11 9 9 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -26. -26. -27. -30. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 124.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 10.2% 8.0% 5.9% 4.6% 8.8% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.6% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 2.9% 2.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##