* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 51 52 53 50 46 46 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 51 52 53 50 46 46 46 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 50 50 50 49 47 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 20 17 17 16 19 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 0 0 0 -1 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 57 67 62 63 55 58 60 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.1 25.8 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 133 133 133 133 134 122 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 59 62 62 66 66 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 18 20 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 91 88 100 101 88 77 57 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 44 27 37 59 0 19 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 3 1 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1684 1695 1707 1727 1746 1754 1689 1547 1386 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.7 15.6 17.7 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 124.6 124.7 124.9 125.1 125.2 125.2 125.4 126.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 2 2 8 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 8 9 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 124.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 258.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##