* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 52 54 55 54 51 46 44 43 42 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 52 54 55 54 51 46 44 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 51 51 51 51 50 46 40 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 20 17 19 12 11 16 13 13 2 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 0 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 64 68 70 71 73 72 76 41 221 205 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 25.8 24.2 23.3 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 131 132 133 132 122 106 97 90 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 62 62 63 67 68 68 62 54 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 85 87 85 96 95 86 84 57 58 70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 38 46 50 61 36 25 23 6 -6 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 4 4 3 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1652 1672 1692 1692 1692 1677 1612 1495 1375 1422 1567 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.2 16.1 17.9 20.2 22.2 23.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.2 124.5 124.7 124.7 124.7 124.7 124.7 124.9 125.7 127.7 130.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 0 0 3 7 11 12 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -6. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 124.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.11 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.15 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 257.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 10.2% 7.5% 5.5% 0.0% 10.9% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.8% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 3.7% 3.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##