* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 74 72 69 65 65 67 67 61 56 51 V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 74 72 69 65 65 67 67 61 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 78 75 71 64 61 62 64 64 60 52 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 11 11 12 14 11 15 16 19 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 5 3 -2 -2 -5 -2 0 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 171 173 165 150 130 89 67 64 67 74 74 179 183 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 26.9 25.4 23.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 137 137 136 134 135 136 132 118 100 89 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.5 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 59 58 59 61 64 67 68 69 69 58 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 19 19 18 18 20 22 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 3 22 39 58 78 119 114 112 91 94 72 71 200 MB DIV -5 1 6 14 17 -15 63 63 65 63 15 -4 -6 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 3 6 12 5 -3 1 LAND (KM) 1305 1360 1416 1476 1537 1621 1637 1613 1544 1432 1284 1223 1294 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.9 19.1 21.1 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.2 121.7 122.3 122.8 123.6 123.8 123.7 123.4 123.2 123.3 124.6 126.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 2 5 8 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 6 8 10 11 10 8 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -1. 3. 5. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -15. -13. -13. -19. -24. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.0 120.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 541.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 11.3% 9.5% 7.8% 7.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 4.6% 3.5% 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##