* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 72 70 67 66 64 65 67 66 62 55 48 V (KT) LAND 75 75 72 70 67 66 64 65 67 66 62 55 48 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 74 71 68 62 60 61 64 65 60 51 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 17 13 10 9 14 16 17 16 16 13 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 5 0 -3 -5 -2 1 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 187 161 164 156 143 93 59 61 79 94 66 83 178 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.0 25.4 23.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 139 139 138 137 138 138 134 118 100 92 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 56 58 59 61 62 65 66 71 71 72 67 59 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 19 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 21 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -7 7 23 39 83 106 122 110 110 122 118 120 200 MB DIV -7 2 1 -8 2 19 21 66 101 64 49 19 -3 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 2 1 0 0 2 8 14 6 2 -3 LAND (KM) 1278 1334 1392 1456 1519 1587 1655 1624 1506 1344 1181 1153 1309 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.1 14.4 15.3 17.0 19.6 21.3 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.4 121.0 121.6 122.1 122.7 123.3 123.2 122.6 122.2 122.4 123.9 126.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 4 7 11 12 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 8 9 10 12 14 12 6 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. 1. -0. 1. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -10. -8. -9. -13. -20. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.7 119.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 465.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 12.8% 10.7% 8.9% 7.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 4.8% 3.8% 3.1% 2.7% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##