* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 52 51 48 48 50 54 57 59 56 51 V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 52 51 48 48 50 54 57 59 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 57 54 49 44 43 43 45 47 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 16 16 13 8 13 15 13 14 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 4 3 2 1 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 170 176 165 160 157 136 121 67 85 80 59 39 81 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 142 141 139 138 137 137 137 134 128 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 59 61 59 61 61 63 67 66 71 70 73 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 16 18 18 18 18 19 20 21 20 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -21 -18 -7 10 79 119 121 123 118 125 123 118 200 MB DIV -9 -7 -5 -12 -9 18 29 17 73 82 44 22 35 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 2 3 3 1 0 2 5 5 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1213 1251 1280 1328 1376 1462 1536 1596 1609 1560 1467 1373 1304 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.8 14.5 14.3 14.4 15.1 16.2 17.5 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.9 119.4 120.0 120.5 121.4 122.1 122.7 123.0 123.1 123.0 123.0 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 5 4 4 2 2 4 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 5 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -9. -12. -12. -10. -6. -3. -1. -4. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.4 118.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 362.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 10.6% 9.9% 8.6% 0.0% 10.2% 7.8% 4.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.5% 3.6% 3.1% 0.1% 3.5% 2.7% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##