* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 63 61 59 60 61 58 59 59 56 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 63 61 59 60 61 58 59 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 61 57 53 51 51 52 53 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 8 10 10 14 18 17 18 15 17 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 4 -5 -5 -3 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 256 190 183 180 153 135 117 102 70 65 63 65 58 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 145 144 142 139 138 137 137 135 130 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 61 59 62 62 64 64 67 67 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 21 21 20 20 22 23 22 24 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -39 -28 -21 -13 8 55 108 126 137 138 153 158 200 MB DIV -21 -8 0 -19 0 19 14 19 28 34 63 54 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 2 5 6 4 LAND (KM) 1186 1200 1214 1244 1272 1342 1409 1490 1556 1561 1505 1472 1470 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.8 14.6 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 117.9 118.2 118.7 119.1 120.1 121.0 121.8 122.5 122.9 123.1 123.6 124.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 2 3 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 8 5 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 4. 6. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 5. 6. 4. 4. 4. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.0 117.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.14 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 303.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 29.3% 22.8% 19.0% 17.2% 21.7% 14.2% 5.4% Logistic: 12.5% 17.8% 11.4% 9.2% 6.3% 2.8% 1.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 9.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 18.9% 12.0% 9.6% 7.9% 8.4% 5.1% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##