* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 61 64 64 65 68 69 70 68 67 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 61 64 64 65 68 69 70 68 67 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 57 58 57 56 55 56 58 61 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 6 8 10 7 14 16 18 18 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 0 0 3 4 -2 -7 0 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 333 320 197 165 166 132 134 96 82 68 56 58 62 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 147 145 141 139 139 138 137 135 132 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 64 62 63 65 64 66 69 66 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 20 21 21 21 20 22 24 26 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -48 -41 -31 -27 -10 15 66 119 109 123 109 134 200 MB DIV -3 -19 -5 2 -12 23 6 39 22 34 42 59 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 2 4 3 2 LAND (KM) 1182 1207 1232 1257 1283 1354 1422 1486 1546 1581 1591 1590 1555 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 117.7 118.0 118.4 118.7 119.7 120.8 121.5 122.0 122.5 123.2 123.7 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 15 14 13 14 13 11 11 10 7 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 14. 15. 18. 19. 20. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 117.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.14 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 29.3% 22.5% 18.5% 17.4% 22.6% 17.4% 7.7% Logistic: 15.4% 30.2% 19.0% 13.5% 9.1% 8.0% 4.0% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 8.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 11.6% 22.5% 14.5% 11.0% 8.9% 10.5% 7.3% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##