* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 55 58 61 62 65 66 65 68 67 67 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 55 58 61 62 65 66 65 68 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 52 54 55 54 53 52 54 57 62 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 1 4 10 11 9 9 12 14 16 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 -2 -3 1 4 -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 329 332 320 167 161 160 162 104 89 72 61 38 56 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 141 141 139 139 140 139 139 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 64 63 64 64 65 66 64 68 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 18 19 19 21 20 20 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -46 -47 -43 -34 -24 -5 25 40 65 81 96 87 200 MB DIV 23 9 -10 4 5 -4 8 10 35 6 35 58 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 -1 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1176 1207 1239 1268 1298 1363 1440 1540 1642 1701 1715 1707 1683 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 117.7 118.1 118.5 118.9 119.7 120.8 121.9 123.0 123.7 124.0 124.2 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 4 2 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 17 17 17 18 17 13 13 15 14 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 6. 6. 9. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 20. 21. 20. 23. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 117.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 212.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 28.9% 21.8% 17.7% 16.9% 20.9% 17.7% 8.9% Logistic: 16.9% 36.7% 22.8% 15.9% 9.8% 7.5% 3.6% 6.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 21.0% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.1% Consensus: 11.9% 28.9% 16.7% 11.9% 9.2% 10.3% 7.6% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##