* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 58 64 67 70 73 74 76 74 74 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 58 64 67 70 73 74 76 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 57 60 61 61 62 65 68 70 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 3 3 10 8 6 12 14 19 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -5 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 337 326 334 6 124 145 137 67 75 53 45 47 50 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 142 142 142 140 139 140 140 139 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 65 67 66 66 65 66 68 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 23 24 24 27 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -38 -41 -42 -42 -35 -18 0 24 42 38 38 36 200 MB DIV 20 33 17 -4 8 -14 15 -7 4 -3 17 16 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1154 1189 1224 1257 1291 1360 1430 1528 1636 1711 1734 1709 1661 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.5 13.8 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.5 117.9 118.3 118.7 119.5 120.5 121.6 122.8 123.5 123.7 123.7 123.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 2 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 21 19 18 19 18 14 14 19 21 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 14. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 22. 25. 28. 29. 31. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 117.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 193.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 24.2% 20.0% 16.9% 14.8% 21.0% 17.9% 9.6% Logistic: 2.8% 10.1% 6.4% 5.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 5.8% 13.1% 9.1% 7.6% 5.9% 8.0% 7.0% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##