* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 42 47 52 53 54 59 62 63 62 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 42 47 52 53 54 59 62 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 39 39 41 41 41 42 44 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 8 9 8 4 11 11 9 13 11 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 351 353 331 323 344 148 172 165 133 112 80 60 55 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 141 142 140 141 140 138 138 139 142 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 65 65 65 65 66 65 64 63 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 16 19 19 19 22 24 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -40 -39 -36 -42 -30 -22 -8 12 28 59 46 49 200 MB DIV 33 29 33 20 11 11 -11 15 16 31 34 50 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 2 1 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1060 1085 1112 1144 1178 1236 1296 1388 1483 1570 1630 1737 1903 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.4 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.6 118.5 119.2 120.4 121.7 122.8 123.5 124.7 126.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 27 27 25 20 18 16 10 8 8 12 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 7. 7. 11. 12. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 18. 19. 24. 27. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 115.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.1% 11.7% 9.6% 0.0% 15.4% 13.7% 10.2% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 1.6% 4.6% 4.0% 3.3% 0.0% 5.5% 4.8% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##