* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102017 07/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 49 54 57 59 62 65 66 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 49 54 57 59 62 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 33 34 35 36 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 10 5 4 7 6 13 8 10 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 1 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 331 339 354 360 5 349 114 159 137 112 99 83 54 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 139 141 142 144 144 143 140 140 142 143 145 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 68 70 68 68 67 66 63 63 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 17 18 17 18 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -48 -56 -51 -48 -56 -39 -28 -15 -2 12 20 38 200 MB DIV -4 15 36 39 32 16 24 -18 4 -4 -1 -5 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 4 3 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1019 1046 1076 1103 1132 1202 1278 1352 1424 1535 1680 1793 1869 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.6 116.1 117.2 118.3 119.3 120.4 121.7 123.3 124.6 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 20 21 22 22 18 19 19 14 16 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 24. 27. 29. 32. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 113.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 TEN 07/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.04 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 10.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 2.5% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.7% 4.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 3.8% 0.9% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 TEN 07/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##