* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102017 07/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 37 41 46 49 51 49 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 37 41 46 49 51 49 49 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 34 34 34 33 32 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 13 6 6 2 9 11 13 11 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 -6 0 -2 -2 0 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 344 336 344 3 15 302 337 176 182 171 156 146 82 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 138 140 142 143 143 141 139 140 142 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 69 68 69 67 68 64 62 62 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -48 -51 -53 -46 -45 -49 -34 -29 -10 -1 12 18 200 MB DIV 10 5 22 37 45 7 -8 8 -24 -20 -20 4 -10 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1002 1017 1036 1059 1085 1139 1212 1306 1402 1504 1614 1727 1842 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.0 13.5 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.6 116.5 117.6 118.9 120.2 121.5 122.6 123.6 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 17 19 21 24 22 18 18 14 13 21 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 24. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 19. 19. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 113.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 TEN 07/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.04 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.3% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 2.2% 5.1% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% Consensus: 0.9% 3.9% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 4.9% 1.9% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 TEN 07/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##