* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102017 07/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 46 54 58 60 62 64 67 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 46 54 58 60 62 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 33 33 34 36 38 41 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 18 15 7 10 4 6 14 13 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 1 -3 -6 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 339 338 340 354 4 7 14 60 135 131 125 107 74 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 136 139 143 146 146 145 145 146 144 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 68 70 73 73 73 71 67 66 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 16 15 16 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -29 -37 -31 -37 -46 -67 -53 -41 -27 -22 -17 -6 200 MB DIV 5 13 17 40 65 64 25 24 9 10 -7 25 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 3 3 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 948 937 977 1038 1121 1286 1354 1344 1314 1318 1460 1643 1837 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.2 14.9 14.0 13.3 13.2 13.6 14.1 13.9 13.2 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.4 114.5 115.6 116.5 117.8 117.9 117.6 117.7 118.4 120.1 122.0 123.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 8 6 2 1 3 6 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 13 21 26 18 15 15 16 17 19 18 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 16. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 112.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 TEN 07/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 TEN 07/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##