* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092018 07/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 25 23 24 24 23 22 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 25 23 24 24 23 22 23 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 26 25 25 24 24 24 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 23 21 22 24 23 23 25 20 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -6 -3 -4 -4 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 344 342 331 327 331 327 334 325 318 306 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.3 27.9 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 143 148 144 148 146 147 146 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 58 61 60 61 61 60 61 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -14 -10 -2 7 20 19 13 8 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 -4 -20 -36 -46 -32 -26 -4 7 5 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -2 2 1 3 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2028 1941 1856 1755 1656 1460 1275 1071 853 699 646 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.3 139.3 140.3 141.4 142.5 144.6 146.7 149.2 151.9 154.5 156.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 14 13 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 12 15 12 17 20 13 34 21 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 138.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX