* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092018 07/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 26 25 24 25 26 26 26 25 25 26 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 26 25 24 25 26 26 26 25 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 26 26 25 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 24 25 23 26 22 24 21 21 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -1 -2 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 333 341 342 336 332 333 335 331 308 299 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 143 142 145 148 146 147 146 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 60 58 59 61 61 61 60 61 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -3 -11 -13 -9 5 15 13 9 9 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 24 12 -12 -41 -51 -44 -27 0 3 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 1 5 4 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2126 2030 1935 1842 1752 1548 1351 1156 942 761 716 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.2 138.3 139.3 140.4 141.4 143.7 146.0 148.3 150.8 153.7 157.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 12 11 12 14 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 6 8 12 14 14 19 20 21 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 137.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX