* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092018 07/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 34 33 32 33 34 34 32 31 32 31 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 34 33 32 33 34 34 32 31 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 20 26 26 25 24 20 23 24 17 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -7 -7 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 351 340 332 340 342 332 341 340 344 331 322 303 305 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 144 148 144 147 148 145 144 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 60 58 60 61 59 60 60 58 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 2 -4 -7 4 14 23 15 10 -1 -3 -14 200 MB DIV 26 21 16 11 -19 -44 -37 -30 0 0 -13 -15 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -4 -2 -2 -4 -3 3 3 4 2 1 LAND (KM) 2207 2119 2032 1937 1844 1641 1444 1229 994 794 680 687 855 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 136.3 137.3 138.2 139.3 140.3 142.6 144.8 147.1 149.7 152.3 155.1 158.1 161.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 6 5 11 13 13 16 10 44 18 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 136.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 2.2% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX