* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092018 07/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 37 37 40 42 46 47 50 53 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 37 37 40 42 46 47 50 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 41 43 47 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 12 14 18 22 22 24 16 19 20 13 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 4 1 0 0 -3 -1 0 -5 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 351 349 347 345 347 347 350 360 10 26 23 31 12 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 143 143 148 152 149 148 154 154 154 149 152 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 66 62 61 65 66 65 64 63 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 7 -1 -12 -6 9 24 30 30 32 20 7 200 MB DIV 12 38 38 21 9 -11 -47 -29 -10 7 0 31 36 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -5 -4 -4 -5 -3 0 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2323 2202 2100 2011 1926 1780 1661 1522 1377 1252 1200 1208 1275 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.9 10.5 10.1 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 LONG(DEG W) 135.0 136.3 137.6 138.8 140.1 142.6 145.1 147.8 150.6 153.1 155.6 158.1 160.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 16 22 17 25 41 38 47 17 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 10. 12. 16. 17. 20. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 135.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092018 NINE 07/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 13.4% 12.1% 7.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 10.8% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 1.3% 4.7% 40.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.5% 5.2% 3.2% 1.7% 0.4% 1.6% 13.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092018 NINE 07/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX