* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/30/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 11 13 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 283 278 266 255 215 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 80 79 78 78 76 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 50 49 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 28 22 25 19 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 6 -4 11 23 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 0 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1202 1256 1277 1313 1355 1446 1530 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.8 129.0 130.0 131.0 132.6 134.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -2. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -30. -32. -35. -38. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.8 126.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/30/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.28 -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 280.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 5.4% 4.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/30/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##