* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 37 33 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 37 33 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 47 43 39 35 28 24 21 18 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 8 7 7 10 12 8 12 8 6 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 1 0 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 346 312 299 258 244 254 219 228 248 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.0 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 93 86 83 83 82 81 79 79 80 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 58 55 52 49 46 43 39 35 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 16 13 13 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 32 20 29 41 37 32 18 15 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 7 1 9 15 -3 10 3 4 -1 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -3 -6 -9 0 -5 5 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 963 1009 1069 1145 1231 1348 1442 1526 1585 1623 1661 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.3 25.1 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.2 124.3 125.5 126.7 129.0 131.0 132.3 133.0 133.5 134.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 10 8 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -11. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -26. -29. -34. -37. -39. -41. -43. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.9 122.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 336.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##