* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 45 40 32 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 45 40 32 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 46 41 33 27 24 21 19 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 7 6 9 12 8 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 1 1 -1 0 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 346 334 297 294 258 238 234 230 266 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.0 23.1 22.5 22.1 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 103 94 88 84 82 81 80 79 80 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 58 55 52 48 47 43 38 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 17 16 14 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 56 53 34 20 39 33 35 24 22 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 28 5 5 12 0 -5 3 -8 8 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -2 -2 -8 1 -1 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 973 989 1019 1072 1137 1305 1378 1444 1498 1563 1660 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.6 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.2 123.1 124.2 125.3 127.6 129.5 130.9 131.8 132.7 133.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 10 8 6 4 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -23. -30. -34. -39. -42. -43. -46. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.1 121.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 338.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.5% 11.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.2% 3.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##