* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 47 43 34 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 47 43 34 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 47 43 35 29 25 23 20 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 9 8 7 6 1 6 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 347 354 347 315 281 225 216 176 208 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.8 24.1 23.1 22.5 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 104 94 88 82 82 79 78 76 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 63 61 58 51 47 47 45 42 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 16 15 13 13 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 51 51 35 36 47 38 29 13 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 29 22 -7 -4 12 1 6 2 0 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -7 -4 -3 1 0 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 958 984 1001 1030 1072 1216 1342 1400 1445 1466 1467 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.3 22.9 24.2 25.1 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.3 122.2 123.2 124.2 126.5 128.9 130.5 131.5 132.1 132.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 10 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -27. -33. -38. -42. -44. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.5 120.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.06 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 311.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.2% 11.1% 8.1% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.4% 3.7% 2.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##