* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 52 50 39 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 52 50 39 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 50 46 38 31 27 23 20 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 11 8 7 9 7 7 6 7 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 350 346 347 351 348 322 257 237 142 194 144 179 205 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.7 23.9 23.1 22.1 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 110 102 94 84 81 80 79 78 77 75 74 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 63 61 54 48 45 44 38 36 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 21 20 17 16 14 13 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 44 60 53 59 60 28 54 41 45 26 26 14 6 200 MB DIV 36 40 41 15 0 8 2 0 -6 -7 15 12 7 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -7 -8 -3 -12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 928 968 986 1008 1042 1155 1298 1350 1426 1466 1485 1516 1538 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.2 23.5 24.9 25.5 25.7 26.2 27.0 27.5 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.6 121.4 122.4 123.3 125.5 127.8 129.6 131.0 132.1 133.1 133.9 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 10 7 6 6 5 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -16. -22. -29. -37. -42. -47. -53. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.0 119.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 282.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 18.2% 14.7% 11.2% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.1% 4.9% 3.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##