* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 48 48 45 40 34 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 48 48 45 40 34 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 51 48 46 43 38 33 28 24 22 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 8 10 5 6 10 7 6 12 13 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -6 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 16 4 345 333 353 337 307 258 273 150 208 188 194 SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.3 24.9 23.5 22.9 23.1 23.2 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 116 112 98 91 93 94 89 87 85 85 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 66 67 63 57 53 45 39 32 26 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 22 21 21 19 17 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 26 42 62 66 62 65 50 70 73 95 88 74 41 200 MB DIV 20 34 30 22 21 19 -3 14 -10 -10 -10 9 2 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -5 -9 -9 -2 -5 -1 -6 -2 -3 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 887 902 926 975 1012 1108 1256 1419 1596 1679 1702 1735 1775 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.6 22.3 22.6 22.6 23.1 24.1 24.9 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.9 119.6 120.5 121.4 123.6 125.9 127.9 129.8 131.5 133.1 134.4 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -7. -10. -15. -21. -27. -34. -37. -42. -46. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.9 118.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 228.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 12.2% 10.6% 7.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.2% 3.6% 2.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##