* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 63 63 60 61 60 55 49 46 39 35 31 V (KT) LAND 70 65 63 63 60 61 60 55 49 46 39 35 31 V (KT) LGEM 70 65 62 60 58 54 50 45 40 36 34 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 12 8 10 9 6 5 3 2 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 349 1 352 7 3 323 341 358 320 316 328 125 290 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.0 23.9 23.7 23.9 23.6 23.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 128 126 122 113 102 100 101 97 93 91 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 71 71 70 66 62 55 50 45 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 27 24 26 27 25 23 23 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 23 35 44 51 41 72 77 103 96 111 97 92 77 200 MB DIV 25 44 39 33 49 44 16 18 1 4 2 -4 -13 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 845 890 921 940 968 1061 1152 1260 1435 1619 1798 1870 1874 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.8 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.5 117.4 118.2 119.0 120.8 122.6 124.8 127.2 129.4 131.4 132.7 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 1. 4. 5. 3. 0. 0. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -7. -10. -9. -10. -15. -21. -24. -31. -35. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.4 115.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 258.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 7.4% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##