* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 70 70 68 70 68 63 58 51 45 40 37 V (KT) LAND 75 71 70 70 68 70 68 63 58 51 45 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 75 70 67 64 62 57 53 49 45 42 39 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 14 13 11 9 10 4 5 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -6 -2 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 344 335 353 349 9 327 325 316 276 180 113 9 289 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.6 24.5 23.7 23.5 23.6 23.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 131 129 124 119 108 99 97 98 92 89 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 73 71 71 71 66 61 56 51 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 25 24 26 26 26 24 23 22 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 41 44 52 54 67 83 79 70 76 76 62 200 MB DIV 22 44 54 37 31 46 19 39 8 -7 -4 -6 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 801 841 889 914 932 990 1100 1176 1280 1411 1542 1662 1687 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.6 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.0 119.6 121.4 123.3 125.3 127.2 128.9 130.5 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -5. -7. -5. -7. -12. -17. -24. -30. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.2 114.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 277.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##