* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 80 79 78 75 73 66 62 53 48 38 31 V (KT) LAND 85 82 80 79 78 75 73 66 62 53 48 38 31 V (KT) LGEM 85 82 79 76 73 67 61 55 49 44 39 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 18 14 9 8 10 9 9 2 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 340 347 343 359 352 24 345 329 322 297 207 107 46 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.1 24.0 23.5 23.4 23.3 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 134 132 127 124 114 102 96 96 96 89 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 73 73 73 72 66 65 57 54 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 25 25 26 25 26 24 26 23 24 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -3 17 31 49 57 58 81 76 90 76 80 87 92 200 MB DIV 31 13 57 55 53 47 36 21 25 14 0 -28 -18 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -6 -6 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 770 806 853 893 925 969 1056 1147 1205 1302 1399 1540 1649 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.4 21.8 22.6 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.7 115.6 116.5 117.3 118.8 120.5 122.4 124.1 125.8 127.2 129.2 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 7 8 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 1. 3. -0. 0. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -19. -23. -32. -37. -47. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.9 113.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.10 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 312.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 8.5% 5.6% 4.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.1% 1.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##