* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 85 82 83 79 73 69 62 52 44 38 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 85 82 83 79 73 69 62 52 44 38 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 86 82 79 73 67 63 58 51 45 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 11 8 8 10 8 7 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 0 0 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 347 345 356 351 349 4 2 2 338 341 288 278 229 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.8 24.9 23.7 23.2 23.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 137 135 131 126 121 112 99 94 93 90 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 74 75 74 73 71 70 64 62 56 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 25 23 27 27 27 27 27 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 13 23 47 56 70 89 90 78 90 91 88 200 MB DIV 53 30 19 51 60 42 40 23 32 -1 23 4 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -7 -6 -6 -6 -5 -4 -6 -10 1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 754 777 812 854 905 967 1005 1069 1143 1199 1297 1414 1534 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.7 114.6 115.5 116.4 118.0 119.4 120.9 122.6 124.3 126.1 127.9 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 5 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. 4. 5. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -7. -11. -17. -21. -28. -38. -46. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.6 112.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.07 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 298.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 9.4% 6.5% 5.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 3.6% 2.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##