* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 87 86 85 80 78 73 65 57 49 41 V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 87 86 85 80 78 73 65 57 49 41 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 87 84 81 75 70 65 60 54 48 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 15 20 21 10 8 8 8 8 9 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 0 2 2 -3 0 -1 -3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 1 345 353 4 1 5 15 5 339 334 333 333 297 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.3 24.2 23.7 23.4 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 138 137 133 129 124 116 104 99 96 94 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -50.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 73 74 73 70 68 66 64 56 47 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 26 26 27 26 28 28 27 26 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -3 8 23 33 58 65 95 96 108 107 139 152 200 MB DIV 33 55 44 29 47 62 37 47 52 21 5 26 -7 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -6 -6 -7 -4 -5 -7 -4 -5 0 -1 LAND (KM) 754 767 795 831 877 949 1015 1094 1173 1236 1338 1438 1554 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.8 113.8 114.8 115.7 117.4 119.1 120.8 122.4 124.2 126.0 127.7 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 7 5 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -27. -31. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. -12. -17. -25. -33. -41. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.3 111.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 293.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 9.5% 6.2% 5.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 4.0% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##