* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 91 91 90 88 87 84 77 69 62 53 43 V (KT) LAND 90 90 91 91 90 88 87 84 77 69 62 53 43 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 88 86 83 77 72 67 61 56 50 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 17 17 18 13 12 12 11 7 5 1 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 351 353 354 350 356 349 5 346 348 342 327 305 155 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.2 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 143 140 137 134 128 124 118 109 104 102 101 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 74 75 73 72 68 66 63 59 50 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 26 26 27 30 31 30 30 29 27 22 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -16 -6 6 28 56 68 94 119 127 141 164 173 200 MB DIV 26 36 59 51 40 71 27 35 39 30 15 28 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -3 -7 -7 -8 -2 -7 -8 -5 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 681 734 740 763 801 906 950 1038 1167 1267 1375 1492 1601 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.6 112.6 113.7 114.7 116.7 118.4 120.2 122.1 124.0 125.7 127.5 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 9 7 5 5 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 11. 9. 8. 5. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -28. -37. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.2 110.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 272.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 12.3% 8.1% 7.8% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 5.7% 3.1% 3.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##