* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 90 90 86 88 85 79 73 65 58 51 V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 90 90 86 88 85 79 73 65 58 51 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 89 87 84 79 74 69 65 59 53 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 17 16 15 16 10 9 12 8 2 1 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 353 355 354 358 353 351 351 334 318 315 11 94 118 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.1 24.3 24.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 144 140 136 131 126 122 114 105 102 103 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.6 -51.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 70 72 74 74 74 74 71 69 64 62 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 25 25 25 30 30 30 30 29 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -4 6 18 43 60 67 101 105 126 116 114 200 MB DIV 34 11 12 52 54 54 49 59 52 56 0 15 1 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -7 -6 -5 -9 -6 -7 -6 -11 -2 -5 2 LAND (KM) 599 675 739 745 770 852 930 1005 1108 1213 1312 1422 1540 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.6 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.7 115.7 117.7 119.5 121.2 123.0 124.9 126.6 128.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 13 9 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -16. -21. -25. -29. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -4. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 10. 12. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. -0. -4. -2. -5. -11. -17. -25. -32. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.9 109.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 2.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 294.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 12.2% 8.7% 8.6% 5.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 3.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 6.0% 3.4% 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##