* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 91 90 91 91 90 88 85 78 72 62 54 V (KT) LAND 90 91 91 90 91 91 90 88 85 78 72 62 54 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 89 88 86 83 78 74 69 64 57 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 15 16 14 16 17 13 7 9 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 4 360 358 3 2 349 338 340 320 332 330 66 70 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.5 24.7 24.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 146 143 138 134 130 126 118 109 106 108 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 68 71 74 75 76 75 74 71 65 60 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 21 22 25 28 30 31 30 32 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -18 -10 6 18 30 58 77 99 130 166 177 162 200 MB DIV -3 21 28 26 77 34 59 64 58 46 31 18 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -7 -7 -7 -11 -14 -9 -4 -15 -5 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 563 622 694 763 775 831 929 1010 1123 1257 1358 1469 1603 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 19.9 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.4 110.5 111.6 112.7 114.9 116.9 118.9 120.9 122.9 124.9 126.6 128.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 16 13 9 5 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 14. 15. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -12. -18. -28. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.4 108.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 281.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 13.9% 10.5% 10.2% 6.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 5.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 7.4% 4.3% 4.0% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##