* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 95 95 95 93 90 86 84 77 73 65 58 V (KT) LAND 90 94 95 95 95 93 90 86 84 77 73 65 58 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 94 94 93 86 80 75 70 64 59 54 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 12 15 15 15 13 11 8 7 4 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -4 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 325 350 360 4 3 346 348 324 275 262 17 77 57 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.1 24.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 150 149 146 139 136 131 126 123 114 108 105 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 71 75 75 76 75 74 70 62 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 24 26 27 28 29 31 30 32 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -13 -5 7 26 39 56 67 104 127 154 142 200 MB DIV 11 1 36 27 18 64 37 53 77 54 30 9 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -7 -6 -6 -13 -8 -3 -4 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 521 562 623 702 765 790 874 952 1028 1155 1286 1396 1501 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.6 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.4 109.5 110.6 111.7 113.9 116.0 117.9 119.7 121.6 123.7 125.4 126.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 18 16 12 7 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -23. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 10. 12. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. -6. -13. -17. -25. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.2 107.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 258.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 17.9% 14.5% 11.9% 11.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 7.9% 3.3% 2.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.7% 26.6% 8.4% 3.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 17.5% 8.7% 6.0% 5.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##