* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 101 103 106 107 98 96 93 87 78 70 64 V (KT) LAND 90 96 101 103 106 107 98 96 93 87 78 70 64 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 98 100 100 96 86 79 73 66 61 56 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 8 13 14 15 13 9 11 9 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 -2 0 -4 -4 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 14 321 341 353 352 345 345 339 316 264 251 178 120 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 151 150 145 139 134 129 126 120 113 107 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 73 73 77 76 77 74 74 72 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 21 24 28 27 30 32 33 32 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -19 -14 -11 -8 7 15 32 43 66 98 114 127 200 MB DIV 66 20 13 39 31 58 49 53 67 50 41 31 32 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 -6 -4 -10 -10 -8 -2 -9 -3 0 LAND (KM) 465 487 509 572 648 726 740 820 912 1005 1086 1184 1282 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.4 19.8 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.1 108.0 109.1 110.2 112.2 114.0 115.8 117.7 119.5 121.1 122.7 124.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 27 29 23 20 11 8 3 1 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -22. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 6. 11. 10. 15. 18. 19. 16. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 16. 17. 8. 6. 3. -3. -12. -20. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.1 106.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 5.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 227.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.1% 26.7% 21.4% 18.0% 17.4% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 41.1% 35.1% 20.7% 20.3% 14.6% 5.8% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 17.0% 62.2% 42.1% 27.9% 22.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 28.1% 41.3% 28.0% 22.1% 18.1% 8.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##