* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 87 91 94 95 93 90 86 84 78 71 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 87 91 94 95 93 90 86 84 78 71 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 86 89 91 89 83 76 69 63 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 0 6 7 13 16 18 19 14 8 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 -1 0 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 105 94 62 325 347 360 6 359 343 342 331 334 312 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 148 148 149 151 146 139 133 128 125 122 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 75 74 73 77 77 76 75 75 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 23 25 28 29 31 33 35 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -13 -28 -28 -21 -17 3 36 59 72 100 134 146 200 MB DIV 31 60 48 10 19 53 77 56 70 47 54 38 16 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 1 -7 -6 -7 -11 -9 -7 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 453 468 486 509 522 620 714 737 813 888 975 1065 1151 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.4 106.1 107.0 107.8 109.8 111.8 113.8 115.8 117.6 119.2 120.7 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 20 27 30 21 13 8 4 1 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 19. 17. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 18. 15. 11. 9. 3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.3 104.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.4% 30.2% 24.8% 21.4% 19.8% 20.1% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 14.6% 23.1% 12.6% 12.2% 6.7% 7.7% 3.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.9% 51.7% 24.2% 12.7% 3.8% 11.7% 4.1% 0.0% Consensus: 15.3% 35.0% 20.6% 15.4% 10.1% 13.1% 7.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##