* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 78 83 90 91 92 91 90 87 82 77 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 78 83 90 91 92 91 90 87 82 77 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 73 77 80 86 88 86 81 76 70 65 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 3 3 8 13 15 16 14 10 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 -1 1 0 1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 155 111 128 130 30 360 14 4 349 337 351 348 335 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 148 149 151 150 143 136 130 127 124 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -50.7 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 75 75 74 76 77 77 77 75 72 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 19 21 26 27 28 30 34 35 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -9 -9 -19 -25 -15 -9 31 45 67 86 129 147 200 MB DIV 11 31 45 21 2 39 69 88 48 73 60 57 36 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 -3 -7 -7 -8 -7 -9 -10 -10 LAND (KM) 462 458 466 474 487 552 690 712 764 852 919 1015 1129 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.7 105.4 106.2 107.0 108.8 110.9 112.9 114.8 116.5 118.2 120.0 121.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 17 17 22 27 23 18 10 5 2 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 5. 11. 13. 15. 17. 21. 22. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 18. 25. 26. 27. 26. 25. 22. 17. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.0 104.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 9.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 5.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 2.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.1% 39.8% 33.5% 27.0% 21.4% 23.2% 16.3% 7.1% Logistic: 10.8% 27.0% 15.9% 14.8% 9.2% 8.1% 8.6% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 29.7% 10.3% 4.8% 3.8% 8.6% 5.0% 0.2% Consensus: 13.1% 32.2% 19.9% 15.5% 11.5% 13.3% 10.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##