* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 75 80 89 96 97 96 92 89 84 79 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 75 80 89 96 97 96 92 89 84 79 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 70 76 81 93 104 109 101 89 79 69 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 5 7 2 7 12 10 14 13 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 -1 -4 -1 -1 -1 1 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 122 160 182 118 112 2 340 16 354 341 325 349 347 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.1 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 154 154 154 154 148 135 129 124 120 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 77 76 76 75 75 77 78 78 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 20 20 21 22 26 27 29 30 33 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -18 -24 -17 -12 -25 -6 1 26 41 68 80 116 200 MB DIV 68 46 26 53 81 43 28 46 58 71 65 68 65 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 0 -4 -7 -2 -3 -7 -11 -8 LAND (KM) 493 485 469 469 474 504 581 682 721 805 885 967 1067 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.9 104.5 105.2 105.9 107.5 109.4 111.4 113.5 115.5 117.4 119.2 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 32 22 17 20 29 17 16 8 4 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 51.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 25. 34. 41. 42. 41. 37. 34. 29. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.4 103.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 14.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 11.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 9.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 62.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 4.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 5.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 57% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.3% 71.8% 60.1% 50.2% 35.9% 56.9% 39.5% 11.4% Logistic: 45.7% 68.2% 55.7% 49.3% 37.3% 66.6% 49.7% 13.5% Bayesian: 10.5% 60.2% 40.1% 35.9% 31.2% 31.8% 35.8% 1.4% Consensus: 32.2% 66.7% 52.0% 45.1% 34.8% 51.8% 41.7% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##