* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 62 71 82 95 100 105 99 97 90 85 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 62 71 82 95 100 105 99 97 90 85 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 62 69 83 99 110 108 96 86 76 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 5 4 6 5 9 12 15 10 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 1 -3 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 122 123 135 131 85 75 47 44 30 8 11 342 316 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 154 154 154 150 137 130 126 121 115 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 74 77 77 77 77 75 75 74 77 76 76 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 19 22 22 27 29 33 31 34 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -15 -15 -7 -4 -4 9 21 32 54 59 66 200 MB DIV 55 80 65 50 74 84 56 46 88 53 65 49 59 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 -2 -3 -7 -4 -8 -10 -15 -11 LAND (KM) 501 498 492 477 474 496 536 679 728 774 838 873 939 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.4 15.2 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.2 103.9 104.6 105.2 106.8 108.6 110.7 112.8 114.7 116.3 117.9 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 42 32 22 17 25 24 17 9 5 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 44.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 15. 18. 23. 20. 23. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 26. 37. 50. 55. 60. 54. 52. 45. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 102.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 11.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.30 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 6.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 3.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.3% 55.1% 43.9% 34.6% 25.4% 48.2% 54.5% 21.5% Logistic: 17.7% 54.6% 39.3% 26.6% 14.8% 42.6% 55.2% 24.8% Bayesian: 8.4% 60.6% 32.0% 15.9% 11.5% 30.2% 46.8% 9.9% Consensus: 17.1% 56.8% 38.4% 25.7% 17.3% 40.3% 52.2% 18.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##