* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 49 53 59 72 85 94 98 100 95 93 87 V (KT) LAND 40 43 49 53 59 72 85 94 98 100 95 93 87 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 56 66 79 93 100 96 88 79 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 1 3 2 1 3 6 7 9 14 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -5 -1 0 0 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 147 176 148 168 198 113 335 344 360 354 360 357 352 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 27.9 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 154 154 154 153 153 143 133 127 124 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 73 77 78 78 76 78 76 77 76 77 76 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 15 18 21 24 27 29 33 32 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -9 -14 -20 -21 -6 -19 -13 12 42 56 63 69 200 MB DIV 29 45 74 69 62 102 54 78 76 72 79 92 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -4 -8 -4 -8 -11 -13 LAND (KM) 525 520 519 502 492 503 517 610 677 721 813 888 960 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.7 103.5 104.3 105.0 106.5 108.0 109.9 112.0 114.0 115.8 117.6 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 40 28 19 23 29 17 13 7 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 32.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. 22. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 13. 19. 32. 45. 54. 58. 60. 55. 53. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.5 101.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.5 18.9 to 1.4 1.00 12.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 4.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.3% 45.8% 38.5% 29.3% 23.1% 35.7% 48.5% 44.2% Logistic: 9.5% 41.0% 28.5% 17.2% 7.9% 35.2% 58.1% 30.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 16.7% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 1.8% 9.9% 16.6% Consensus: 10.7% 34.5% 23.9% 16.0% 10.5% 24.2% 38.8% 30.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##