* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/23/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 48 53 65 77 86 92 96 94 92 89 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 48 53 65 77 86 92 96 94 92 89 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 48 57 69 82 94 99 95 87 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 1 1 4 2 3 6 5 6 9 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 1 1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 306 301 309 183 207 205 116 355 35 359 353 5 356 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 156 155 154 155 153 147 135 129 124 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 74 76 78 79 78 76 75 74 74 73 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 21 23 25 27 31 31 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 21 10 -2 0 -2 0 -5 3 23 30 38 42 42 200 MB DIV 51 45 55 89 84 99 76 64 50 65 48 62 54 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 0 -2 -5 -10 LAND (KM) 506 500 494 490 465 478 510 589 671 681 740 797 786 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.9 102.8 103.6 104.4 105.8 107.6 109.5 111.4 113.1 114.7 116.2 117.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 8 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 46 47 35 23 20 29 17 16 9 5 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 32.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 11. 15. 17. 21. 20. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 30. 42. 51. 57. 61. 59. 57. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.3 101.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.98 11.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 4.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 2.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.9% 45.0% 36.2% 27.4% 22.2% 32.4% 47.8% 42.4% Logistic: 12.8% 50.3% 37.0% 23.4% 11.5% 47.4% 53.6% 34.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 36.1% 10.7% 3.3% 0.6% 10.3% 31.6% 25.1% Consensus: 11.5% 43.8% 28.0% 18.0% 11.4% 30.0% 44.3% 34.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##