* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092017 07/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 46 59 72 87 94 98 99 99 95 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 46 59 72 87 94 98 99 99 95 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 44 53 67 82 93 94 89 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 1 4 3 6 7 7 7 11 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 -1 -1 -6 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 76 329 307 243 75 99 85 56 57 30 20 8 14 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 157 156 154 153 153 151 143 133 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -51.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 73 75 76 78 80 78 78 76 75 74 74 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 17 19 21 21 25 27 29 32 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 3 -2 -4 -10 -3 -15 1 8 13 34 51 200 MB DIV 53 52 55 64 106 99 111 65 97 72 61 53 56 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 564 551 542 532 522 508 526 561 665 738 734 790 861 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.4 17.9 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.7 101.6 102.4 103.2 104.7 106.3 108.0 110.0 111.9 113.9 115.4 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 24 39 50 44 24 23 28 17 11 7 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 14. 16. 19. 20. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 16. 29. 42. 57. 64. 68. 69. 69. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 99.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 7.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.33 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 26.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 29.2% 23.6% 20.0% 0.0% 25.2% 32.3% 39.6% Logistic: 5.6% 39.1% 25.7% 11.6% 4.8% 42.7% 58.1% 44.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 8.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 4.3% 8.6% Consensus: 6.3% 25.7% 16.9% 10.8% 1.6% 23.3% 31.6% 30.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##