* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092017 07/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 45 55 68 80 86 87 93 92 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 45 55 68 80 86 87 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 36 40 46 58 70 79 85 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 2 2 3 5 9 4 4 9 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 6 5 2 -4 -6 -8 -6 -2 -1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 24 47 90 118 186 186 135 135 122 355 4 12 4 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 155 157 157 157 155 155 153 153 150 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 73 75 78 79 79 76 74 76 76 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 18 22 25 27 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 22 17 10 4 0 7 8 6 11 14 10 200 MB DIV 7 24 38 46 53 78 109 116 116 56 33 70 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 -5 0 -2 LAND (KM) 700 669 649 601 569 532 498 433 424 439 536 607 574 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.7 11.3 12.3 13.3 14.5 15.5 16.3 16.7 17.5 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 96.1 97.1 98.2 99.1 100.1 101.6 103.1 104.6 106.1 107.6 109.2 110.9 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 11 13 17 35 43 19 21 27 17 16 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 7. 12. 15. 16. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 25. 38. 50. 56. 57. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.4 96.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 23.5% 18.1% 15.2% 0.0% 20.7% 21.0% 43.6% Logistic: 1.9% 23.8% 12.5% 3.8% 1.2% 24.9% 57.3% 48.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% Consensus: 3.7% 16.4% 10.3% 6.3% 0.4% 15.3% 26.8% 31.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##