* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092017 07/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 56 66 77 83 89 93 94 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 56 66 77 83 89 93 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 45 53 65 75 84 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 1 1 2 4 2 5 3 4 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 11 8 6 0 -5 -5 -6 -2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 79 37 33 33 343 256 144 163 110 297 24 20 29 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 152 155 158 157 156 156 155 153 152 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -51.9 -52.4 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 72 76 79 81 78 78 77 78 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 20 22 26 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 45 40 33 24 16 15 9 7 19 -6 4 -1 8 200 MB DIV 16 21 25 42 46 51 109 102 129 57 64 60 64 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 659 705 699 650 603 526 511 454 385 403 490 586 558 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.5 10.1 10.7 12.1 12.9 14.0 15.1 15.9 16.2 17.0 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.1 96.2 97.3 98.2 99.2 101.0 102.5 103.7 104.8 106.3 108.2 110.0 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 10 11 13 26 47 31 17 23 26 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 26. 36. 47. 53. 59. 63. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.2 95.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.2 18.9 to 1.4 1.00 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 44.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 28.1% 21.0% 17.3% 0.0% 21.2% 20.9% 45.0% Logistic: 7.3% 53.1% 35.7% 12.9% 5.5% 48.9% 65.8% 61.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 5.1% Consensus: 6.9% 28.3% 19.0% 10.1% 1.8% 23.4% 29.2% 37.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##