* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092017 07/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 39 42 49 58 66 75 81 83 86 90 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 39 42 49 58 66 75 81 83 86 90 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 36 37 39 42 47 55 64 75 85 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 3 3 4 2 2 8 8 2 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 12 9 5 0 -1 0 -4 -7 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 63 199 291 332 338 345 220 191 108 114 89 36 39 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 151 153 157 158 158 154 154 153 151 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 69 70 76 78 80 80 78 75 74 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 18 21 22 25 30 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 38 31 14 16 12 10 3 9 0 8 24 200 MB DIV 6 14 13 5 34 46 94 108 105 100 76 63 77 700-850 TADV 5 4 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 641 675 700 677 660 595 515 472 460 482 528 662 732 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.8 10.1 11.2 12.6 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 95.3 96.5 97.6 98.8 100.5 101.9 103.5 105.3 106.9 108.5 110.5 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 10 10 11 17 42 36 16 25 24 17 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 12. 15. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 12. 19. 28. 36. 45. 51. 53. 56. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.9 94.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.94 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 30.1% 22.0% 18.1% 0.0% 22.5% 21.3% 41.8% Logistic: 22.5% 74.4% 58.5% 26.4% 14.2% 67.1% 69.6% 73.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 13.2% 3.4% 1.0% 0.5% 1.7% 4.2% 8.9% Consensus: 13.3% 39.2% 28.0% 15.2% 4.9% 30.4% 31.7% 41.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##