* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP092017 07/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 50 58 66 76 81 84 88 93 92 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 50 58 66 76 81 84 88 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 39 42 46 52 59 68 78 89 101 109 109 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 4 4 8 8 6 2 4 2 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 6 0 -1 -3 -5 -8 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 20 27 40 40 53 44 29 78 166 147 333 32 35 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.0 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 148 148 148 149 152 157 160 161 156 153 145 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.4 -53.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 6 9 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 67 68 73 77 78 80 76 75 76 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 15 17 20 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 49 37 31 28 25 20 11 15 21 28 0 7 -1 200 MB DIV 19 3 0 -2 -5 33 88 132 86 99 60 60 54 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 1 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 594 653 733 757 771 748 676 540 401 314 413 606 737 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.4 10.2 11.7 13.6 15.3 15.9 15.5 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.2 95.0 96.4 97.5 98.3 99.4 99.9 100.4 101.6 103.7 106.5 109.0 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 12 9 7 5 6 10 12 14 13 10 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 11 11 11 11 12 20 42 25 24 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 20. 28. 36. 46. 51. 54. 58. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 93.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 INVEST 07/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 5.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.2% 30.3% 21.4% 17.3% 0.0% 20.9% 18.9% 19.9% Logistic: 61.2% 93.7% 85.7% 64.2% 49.2% 78.1% 67.7% 70.2% Bayesian: 3.0% 56.5% 23.7% 13.0% 7.2% 9.8% 2.3% 0.4% Consensus: 27.5% 60.2% 43.6% 31.5% 18.8% 36.3% 29.6% 30.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 INVEST 07/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##