* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 22 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 29 30 33 33 39 40 42 45 47 46 40 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 2 4 5 -3 0 1 0 1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 275 279 280 284 282 283 281 272 269 267 278 281 285 SST (C) 25.3 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 121 122 124 127 130 133 133 130 128 130 133 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -55.3 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 34 33 33 33 33 32 31 31 37 40 43 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -21 -17 -26 -32 -27 -31 -13 -15 -14 -17 -30 -44 200 MB DIV 3 3 -21 -39 -36 -26 5 -8 11 -17 -1 -30 -41 700-850 TADV 4 0 -9 -5 -1 -2 -1 5 2 7 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 950 797 672 554 435 217 28 31 122 56 30 70 122 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.2 20.9 20.3 19.9 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.1 21.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 146.0 147.5 148.7 149.8 150.9 152.9 154.8 156.4 157.7 158.3 158.4 158.8 159.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 9 9 7 5 3 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 2 5 10 15 21 22 20 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -10. -20. -32. -43. -50. -51. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -15. -24. -34. -42. -48. -49. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.8 146.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 293.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 65.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##