* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 10/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 28 35 41 48 52 55 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 28 35 41 48 52 55 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 32 36 39 43 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 12 13 12 12 13 8 7 8 7 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 0 -4 -5 -4 0 -4 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 75 79 83 87 106 127 122 151 109 208 227 259 272 SST (C) 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.5 30.3 29.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 166 166 166 165 164 164 165 169 167 163 154 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -52.8 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 9 11 8 12 8 9 6 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 67 70 69 66 64 62 60 57 56 54 49 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 32 46 42 38 53 70 75 67 48 7 25 22 45 200 MB DIV 27 43 51 60 57 32 66 65 70 32 18 0 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -2 -2 1 LAND (KM) 122 129 122 89 56 22 26 57 107 187 283 416 523 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.2 102.5 102.6 102.7 102.8 103.1 103.5 104.2 105.3 106.8 108.4 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 1 1 3 4 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 23 22 21 20 20 20 21 24 24 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 16. 25. 31. 36. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 16. 23. 27. 30. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 101.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 10/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 -2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 6.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 3.7% 1.4% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 7.6% 4.2% 0.4% 0.2% 5.6% 5.9% 0.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 36.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 10/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX